Aros Seminar: P-hacking and publication bias interact to distort meta-analytic effect size estimates

By Malte Friese (Saarland University).

Oplysninger om arrangementet

Tidspunkt

Onsdag 24. november 2021,  kl. 12:00 - 13:00

Sted

Zoom meeting ID 655 4886 7322

Join hereaarhusuniversity.zoom.us/j/65548867322
No registration necessary.

Science depends on trustworthy evidence. Thus, a biased scientific record is of questionable value because it impedes scientific progress, and the public receives advice based on unreliable evidence that has the potential to have far-reaching detrimental consequences. One way to summarize the scientific record in a given field is the meta-analytic technique. However, meta-analytic effect size estimates may themselves be biased, threatening the validity and usefulness of meta-analyses to promote scientific progress. In this talk, I will present a large-scale simulation study to elucidate how p-hacking and publication bias distort meta-analytic effect size estimates under a broad array of circumstances that reflect the reality that exists across a variety of research areas. The results revealed that, first, very high levels of publication bias can severely distort the cumulative evidence. Second, p-hacking and publication bias interact: At relatively high and low levels of publication bias, p-hacking does comparatively little harm, but at medium levels of publication bias, p-hacking can considerably contribute to bias, especially when the true effects are very small or are approaching zero. Third, p-hacking can severely increase the rate of false positives. A key implication is that, in addition to preventing p-hacking, policies in research institutions, funding agencies, and scientific journals need to make the prevention of publication bias a top priority to ensure a trustworthy base of evidence.

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