Drug Smuggler Careers

A registry-based study of life-course trajectories into drug smuggling

Aims

This study will produce a unique, systematic analysis of trajectories into drug smuggling that will qualify discussions in academia and inform law enforcement responses and preventive efforts to identify early intervention points.

Background

Smuggling of illegal drugs is a multi-billion-dollar industry and a significant global problem. Due to Denmark’s strategic position as both a destination market and the main drug gateway to other Nordic countries, Danish authorities have in recent decades intensified efforts to arrest smugglers. Despite these efforts, estimates indicate that police only seize 5-10% of the total amount of drugs smuggled into Denmark. The situation in Denmark resembles that of other western countries, where efforts to control drug smuggling have been limited in their success. One reason for this is that our understanding of who the smugglers are and what their trajectories into smuggling look like is limited.

The study

This project combines registry-data from two datasets: Firstly, a dataset from the National Police Register (POLSAS), containing all individuals convicted of drug smuggling (n=2.301) in Denmark (1998-2020). Secondly, registry data from Statistics Denmark on these drug smugglers’ entire criminal- (i.e. charges, convictions), educational- and occupational history (incl. job sectors), their income, ethnicity and family history (e.g. parents’ and siblings’ criminal records).

On this basis, we will construct a database that will enable us to: 1) map drug smugglers’ socio-demographic profiles and criminal trajectories (based on onset, types of crimes, frequency, duration, specialization, escalation) and compare these with those of other drug offenders (low- and high-level drug dealers); 2) use group-based trajectory modelling to identify clusters of different criminal trajectories within the smuggler population; and 3) investigate how family ties, friendships (using early age co-charges as a proxy for friendship) influence trajectories into drug smuggling.

The project will take place from August 2023 to August 2025.