A registry-based study of life-course trajectories into and out of higher-level drug sales.

Aims

This study will produce a unique systematic analysis of trajectories into higher-level drug sales that will qualify discussions in academia and inform law enforcement responses and preventive efforts to identify early intervention points.

Background

Serious drug crime is a multi-billion-dollar industry and a significant problem globally and in Denmark. Due to Denmark’s strategic position as both a destination market and the main drug gateway to other Nordic countries, Danish authorities have increased maximum penalties for serious drug crime and intensified law enforcement efforts. Serious drug offenders thus today constitute the largest group within the Danish prison population (20.9%). Most of these are men convicted of wholesale of larger quantities of illegal drugs. It has been estimated that the Danish state spends 3-4 billion DKK annually on drug control measures. Despite the massive resources spend, efforts to reduce serious drug crime have been of limited success. One reason for this is that our understanding of serious drug traders and their trajectories into illegal wholesale is limited.

The study

This project combines registry-data from two datasets: Firstly, a dataset from the National Police Register (POLSAS), containing all individuals convicted of drug wholesale (n=10,666) in Denmark (1998-2020). Secondly, registry data from Statistics Denmark on these drug wholesalers’ entire criminal- (i.e. charges, convictions), educational- and occupational history (incl. job sectors), their income, ethnicity and family history (e.g. parents’ and siblings’ criminal records).

On this basis, we will construct a database that will enable us to: 1) map drug wholesalers’ socio-demographic profiles and criminal trajectories (based on onset, types of crimes, frequency, duration, specialization, escalation) and compare these with those of other drug offenders (low-level dealers and drug smugglers); 2) use group-based trajectory modelling to identify clusters of different criminal trajectories within the wholesaler population; and 3) investigate how family ties, friendships (using early age co-charges as a proxy for friendship) influence trajectories into drug wholesale.

The project will take place from September 2024 to August 2026.

Funding

The study is funded by Nordic Research Council for Criminology (NSfK).